An understanding of weather sensitivity analysis

A four-phase analysis:

• Choice of economical variables to analyse: turnover, volume,
• Identification of meteorological parameters influencing the economic variable,
• Quantification of weather sensitivity and modelling,
• Presentation of historical impact analyses.

This approach has been validated by a large number of weather sensitive studies and operational implementations in different Sectors and Core Business.

Explanation:

• Meteorological data is based on information from Metnext database. Metnext experts select meteorological parameters, observation stations and meteorological models according to each client's situation.
• The data consists of histories provided by the client (time-based per hour, day, or week): The energy consumption history of a building, visiting numbers of an historical site, sparkling water sales of a distributor,  etc.
• First modelling phase: combines historical data and meteorological data by taking into account interaction with other external effects (calendar, promotion, publicity, economic climate, etc.). This non-linear modelling is used to identify significant sensitivity thresholds.
• Second modelling phase: tests the robustness of the model by confirming that the relationship found between the weather and the client data is stable over time.
• The model can then be used to analyse activitity and trong>quantify the impact of the weather on past history.
• Last but not least, by injecting meteorological forecasts in the model, our clients obtain forecast weather sensitivity factors.